If you ship products on Chinese large models, integrate Chinese AI APIs, or negotiate on-prem localization deals with a Chinese vendor, today’s catalogue draft is for you — not only for trade lawyers. On October 16, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) published Announcement No. 48 (2026) seeking public comment on revising 《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》 (China’s Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export), and applying temporary pre-export registration for listed technologies until the formal revision takes effect.
The comment window runs until November 15, 2026. Official framing calls this a routine catalogue update under the Foreign Trade Law — not aimed at any specific country — and says it mirrors practices used by other economies. The practical question for foreign readers is narrower: what still works the way it works today?
What is under consultation
The draft covers 40 technologies across AI, biomedicine, and photovoltaics. On the AI side alone there are 23 items spanning large models, intelligent agents, computing clusters, and information processing.
Of the full 40:
- 14 proposed prohibited exports — MOFCOM-cited examples include AI-driven malicious code generation and mutation; proprietary cell/gene therapy process platforms; and perovskite and tandem PV module production tech, among others.
- 26 proposed restricted exports — examples include AI-assisted vulnerability discovery; proprietary CGT target discovery/validation; and polysilicon engineering tech for lines with capacity of 30,000 tons/year or more, among others.
Open-source AI tech and technology already published in academic papers (public domain) are not in scope.
Under the stated MOFCOM Q&A: API calls, APP/web interaction, SaaS apps, and on-device lightweight local deploy of restricted models are not treated as large-model technology export. Most AI tech can still export freely after formal rules. What is in scope is overseas localization or deploy of restricted large-model technology — including cases where a vendor’s own overseas cloud may get automatic-license facilitation.
The test that actually matters
MOFCOM’s core test for whether a go-abroad case is “technology export” is whether restricted tech transfers from China to overseas. That is a transfer/control question, not a “did someone in London hit an endpoint in Beijing” question.
So for an overseas product team:
- Calling a Chinese model API from your app — out of the large-model export framing in the Q&A.
- Shipping a SaaS product that wraps Chinese models — same direction: interaction/SaaS is carved out.
- Lightweight on-device local deploy of a restricted model — also carved out under the stated Q&A.
- Negotiating full overseas localization / on-prem transfer of restricted large-model tech — in scope; expect licensing and the interim registration path.
Temporary registration while the draft is open
Until the formal revision takes effect, exporters must register on MOFCOM’s tech-trade platform before exporting listed tech. Covered acts include ownership transfer abroad, licensing abroad, and change of owner/controller to a foreign entity, among others. If your deal is “we take the restricted model stack and stand it up in Singapore under our control,” treat registration as part of the critical path — not a paperwork afterthought.
Why overseas readers should care
- API-first products are the calm zone. If your architecture is request/response to a Chinese provider, the Q&A is designed to keep that off the “large-model technology export” ledger.
- On-prem and localization deals need counsel earlier. Restricted-tech transfer abroad is exactly where the catalogue bites; deal timelines should bake in registration and (after formal rules) licensing.
- Vendor messaging will diverge. Expect Chinese vendors to stress free export for most AI while quietly steering restricted localization into licensed channels — read the contract’s “technology transfer” clauses against this draft.
- It is not a blanket ban on Chinese AI abroad. Prohibited items are specific (e.g. malicious-code generation tooling); restricted items are controlled, not erased.
What changes next
Nothing in Announcement No. 48 is the final catalogue. Comments close November 15, 2026; formal rules come after. Until then, temporary registration applies to listed-tech exports. For foreign builders: keep using APIs and SaaS as the Q&A describes; escalate legal review when a deal moves restricted model technology — weights, training know-how, cluster recipes — out of China into your control.
Bookmark the MOFCOM announcement and the Xinhua-carried Q&A. When a Chinese vendor says “export is fine,” ask which line of the draft they mean — and whether your deal is interaction or transfer.